新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

预测评估

Assessment
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北京(Beijing)

自6月11日开始的北京小规模疫情暴发实际新增335人,预测新增310人,预测偏低7.5%。由于北京在第一时间内采取了严格的管控措施,迅速减小了感染率,避免了疫情的大规模暴发。除了6.24开始的小高峰,疫情发展趋势与预测较为一致,显示了模式较好的预测能力。

Beijing had 335 new confirmed cases since the beginning of the small-scale pandemic outbreak on June 11, 2020, and its predicted number was 310, which was 7.5% lower than the real data. Benefitting from the strict control measures implemented in the first place, Beijing promptly reduced the rate of infection and avoided a large-scale outbreak. The evolvement of the pandemic is generally in line with our prediction besides the small peak started on June 24, 2020. It demonstrates the satisfactory predictive ability of our system.