新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

突发新冠疫情预测

兰州大学预测北京疫情不会大规模暴发

Lanzhou University predicts no large-scale outbreak in Beijing


兰州大学《全球COVID-19疫情预测系统》预测结果表明,在当前的二级响应防控措施下,北京市本轮疫情将在6月底得到初步控制,本轮疫情的规模有望控制在300人左右。模型预测显示,在疫情发生后,如果只采取三级响应措施,累积确诊人数将在600人左右,如果不采取任何行动,累积确诊人数将达到20万人。


As the result of Global COVID-19 Prediction System shows that present pandemic in Beijing will be controlled primarily by the end of June under the current secondary response and containment measures, and the number of accumulative confirmed cases will be controlled at about 300. The prediction model indicates that the number of accumulative confirmed cases would be at about 600 if merely the tertiary response measures are taken after the outbreak. The number of accumulative confirmed cases would be at about 200,000 if no action is taken.