新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

突发新冠疫情预测

乌鲁木齐突发疫情的更新预测(8月2日)


本次新疆疫情预报由于初始资料不够细致,初始信息不准确,造成7月18日的预测人数偏低(485人)。由于初期有较多无症状感染者在7月28日至7月30转为确诊患者,所以这三天的确诊数据偏高。8月2日更新预测表明,在实施了更严格的管控措施之后,本轮疫情有望在8月下旬得到控制,累计确诊人数约700人左右。


Due to the inaccurate initial informationandlack of detailed initial data, theprediction resultson July 18of the epidemic inUrumqi of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Regionis lower than the real data(485 people).As more asymptomatic infected persons at the initial stage become confirmed cases from July 28 to July 30, the number of confirmed cases in these three days is relatively high. The updated projection results on August 2ndindicate that the outbreak, with the implementation of tighter containment measures, is expected to be brought under control by late August, with a total of about 700 cumulative confirmed cases.


乌鲁木齐突发疫情的预测(7月19日)


新疆乌鲁木齐此次疫情主要与一次聚集性活动相关联,疫情发展较为迅速。兰州大学《全球COVID-19疫情预测系统》预测结果表明,在目前的一级管控措施情形下,本轮疫情有望在8月上旬得到控制,预计感染人数约200人。如果采取二级和三级管控措施,感染人数分别约260和490人 。


The current outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Urumqi of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is mainly associated with a gathering activity, which develops relatively rapidly. Predicted results of Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic in Lanzhou University show that the current pandemic outbreak is expected to be brought under control in early August under the implemented containment measures at level 1 response, and about 200 people are estimated to be infected. If the containment measures at level 2 response and level 3 response are taken, the number of infections will be about 260 and 490, respectively.