新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

突发新冠疫情预测

兰州大学预测云南疫情已到峰值

GPCP of Lanzhou University predicts: the current COVID-19 outbreak in Yunnan had reached its peak


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兰州大学《新冠肺炎疫情全球预测系统》预测结果表明,如果云南省采取二级响应措施[1],每日新增确诊病例于4月7日前后达到峰值16人,截至4月17日累计确诊病例数约为153人;若采取三级响应措施[2],每日新增确诊病例在4月8日左右达到峰值18人,截至4月21日本轮疫情累计确诊病例数为192人;若不采取管控措施,每日新增确诊病例将在4月11日达到峰值170人,截至4月26日累计确诊病例数将达到2130人左右。(2021年4月8日)

As the result of Global Prediction COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) shows that under the level II response, the number of daily new cases would peak at 16 around April 7, 2021, bringing the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak in Yunnan province to 153 around April 17, 2021; and that under the level III response, the number of daily new cases in Yunnan would peak at 18 around April 8, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 192 around April 21, 2021; if no action was taken, the number of daily new cases would peak at 170 around April 11, 2021, pushing the cumulative confirmed cases at about 2130 as of April 26, 2021. (April 8, 2021)

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[1] 即,当出现一例感染病例时,省指挥部立即组织指挥部成员和专家进行分析研判,对突发公共卫生事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由省人民政府决定启动Ⅱ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令,对中风险的地区,实施“外防输入、内防扩散”策略,尽快有序恢复正常生产生活秩序

When the first case appears, the provincial headquarters should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and provincial people's government decided to initiate a level Ⅱ emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with moderate epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing the spread of COVID-19 from both within and without of a city" should be implemented to orderly restore normal production and life as soon as possible.

[1] 即,当感染病例积累到一定数量时,地级以上市、省直管县(市、区)突发公共卫生事件应急指挥机构立即组织各单位成员和专家进行分析研判,对事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由地级以上市人民政府决定启动Ⅲ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令,对疫情风险较低的地区,实施“外防输入”策略,全面恢复正常生产生活秩序

When the number of infected cases accumulates to a certain number, the municipal public health emergency response agency should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the municipal people's government will initiate a level III emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with low epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing imported cases" should be implemented to fully restore normal production and life.