新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

突发新冠疫情预测

兰州大学对5·21广东省突发新冠肺炎疫情的预测

Prediction of COVID-19 outbreak in Guangdong Province since May 21 by Lanzhou University




      兰州大学《新冠肺炎疫情全球预测系统》预测结果表明,如果广东省采取二级响应措施[1],有望在6月12日左右得到有效控制,累计确诊病例数预计约163人;若采取三级响应措施[2],预计在6月18日左右得到控制,累计确诊病例数或将达到305人左右。(2021年6月5日)

As the result of Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) shows that under the level II response (blue line), the current outbreak of COVID-19 in Guangdong province would be controlled effectively around June 12, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 163 people; and that under the level III response (red dot line), the current outbreak of COVID-19 in Guangdong province would be controlled effectively around June 18, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 305 people. (June 5, 2021)

                               

                                           

      

    兰州大学《新冠肺炎疫情全球预测系统》预测结果表明,如果广东省采取二级响应措施[1],每日新增确诊病例于6月2日前后达到峰值23人,有望在6月14日左右得到有效控制,累计确诊病例数预计约216人;若采取三级响应措施[2],每日新增确诊病例在6月5日左右达到峰值36人,预计在6月18日左右得到控制,累计确诊病例数或将达到392人左右。(2021年6月2日)

As the result of Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) shows that under the level II response (blue line), the number of daily new cases in Guangdong province would peak at 23 around June 2, 2021, bringing the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak in Guangdong province to 216 people around June 14, 2021, when the outbreak is controlled; and that under the level III response (red dot line), the number of daily new cases in Guangdong would peak at 36 around June 5, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 392 people around June 18, 2021, when the outbreak is controlled. (June 2, 2021)

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[1] 即,当出现一例感染病例时,省指挥部立即组织指挥部成员和专家进行分析研判,对突发公共卫生事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由省人民政府决定启动Ⅱ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令,对中风险的地区,实施“外防输入、内防扩散”策略,尽快有序恢复正常生产生活秩序

When the first case appears, the provincial headquarters should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and provincial people's government decided to initiate a level Ⅱ emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with moderate epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing the spread of COVID-19  within and without of a city" should be implemented to orderly restore normal production and life as soon as possible.

[2] 即,当感染病例积累到一定数量时,地级以上市、省直管县(市、区)突发公共卫生事件应急指挥机构立即组织各单位成员和专家进行分析研判,对事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由地级以上市人民政府决定启动Ⅲ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令,对疫情风险较低的地区,实施“外防输入”策略,全面恢复正常生产生活秩序

When the number of infected cases accumulates to a certain number, the municipal public health emergency response agency should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the municipal people's government will initiate a level III emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with low epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing imported cases" should be implemented to fully restore normal production and life.