Prediction of COVID-19 outbreak since July 20 in Jiangsu Province by Lanzhou University (July 28)
截至2021年7月27日24时，江苏本轮疫情已累计报告确诊病例155例，无症状感染者2人（本土，数据来源：江苏省卫健委）。兰州大学《新冠肺炎疫情全球预测系统》预测结果表明，在当前二级响应措施[1]下，江苏省单日新增确诊病例数预计于7月28日前后达到峰值48人左右，本轮疫情将于8月12日左右得到控制，累计确诊病例数预计约485人；若采取三级响应措施[2]，本轮疫情单日新增确诊病例数预计于7月30日前后达到峰值56人左右，预计在8月16日左右得到控制，累计确诊病例数或将达到696人左右。(2021年7月28日）
As of 24:00 on July 27, 2021, 155 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 2 asymptomatic COVID-19 patients of the current outbreak have been reported in Jiangsu province (local cases, data source: Jiangsu Commission of Health). The prediction result of Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) shows that under the current level II response policy (blue line), the number of daily new cases would peak at about 48 around July 28, 2021, and the current outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu province would be controlled around August 12, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 485 people; and that under the level III response policy (red dot line), the number of daily new cases would peak at about 56 around July 30, 2021, and the current outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu province would be controlled around August 16, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 696 people. (July 28, 2021)
Prediction of COVID-19 outbreak since July 20 in Jiangsu Province by Lanzhou University (July 27)
截至2021年7月26日24时，江苏已累计报告确诊病例107例，无症状感染者6人（本土，数据来源：江苏省卫健委）。兰州大学《新冠肺炎疫情全球预测系统》预测结果表明，在当前二级响应措施[1]下，江苏省单日新增确诊病例数预计于7月28日前后达到峰值42人左右，本轮疫情将于8月12日左右得到控制，累计确诊病例数预计约425人；若采取三级响应措施[2]，本轮疫情单日新增确诊病例数预计于7月30日前后达到峰值49人左右，预计在8月16日左右得到控制，累计确诊病例数或将达到606人左右。(2021年7月27日）
As of 24:00 on July 26, 2021, 107 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 6 asymptomatic COVID-19 patients have been reported in Jiangsu province (local cases, data source: Jiangsu Commission of Health). The prediction result of Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) shows that under the current level II response policy (blue line), the number of daily new cases would peak at about 42 around July 28, 2021, and the current outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu province would be controlled around August 12, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 425 people; and that under the level III response policy (red dot line), the number of daily new cases would peak at about 49 around July 30, 2021, and the current outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu province would be controlled around August 16, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 606 people. (July 27, 2021)
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[1] 即，当出现一例感染病例时，省指挥部立即组织指挥部成员和专家进行分析研判,对突发公共卫生事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由省人民政府决定启动Ⅱ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令，对中风险的地区,实施“外防输入、内防扩散”策略,尽快有序恢复正常生产生活秩序。
When the first case appears, the provincial headquarters should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and provincial people's government decided to initiate a level Ⅱ emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with moderate epidemic risk, the strategy of "Preventing imported cases and internal spread" should be implemented to orderly restore normal production and life as soon as possible.
[2] 即，当感染病例积累到一定数量时，地级以上市、省直管县(市、区)突发公共卫生事件应急指挥机构立即组织各单位成员和专家进行分析研判,对事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由地级以上市人民政府决定启动Ⅲ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令，对疫情风险较低的地区,实施“外防输入”策略,全面恢复正常生产生活秩序。
When the number of infected cases accumulates to a certain number, the municipal public health emergency response agency should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the municipal people's government will initiate a level III emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with low epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing imported cases" should be implemented to fully restore normal production and life.
