Prediction of COVID-19 outbreak since July 31 in Henan Province by Lanzhou University (August 4)
截至2021年8月3日24时，河南省本轮疫情已累计报告本土确诊病例17例（数据来源：河南省卫健委）。兰州大学《新冠肺炎疫情全球预测系统》预测结果表明，在当前二级响应措施[1]下，河南省本轮疫情预计将于8月16日左右得到控制，累计确诊病例数预计约150-180人（黑色虚线和粉色虚线之间）；若采取三级响应措施[2]，本轮疫情预计在8月18日左右得到控制，累计确诊病例数或将达到267人左右。(2021年8月4日）
As of 24:00 on August 3, 2021, 17 local confirmed COVID-19 cases of the current outbreak have been reported in Henan province (data source: Health Commission of Henan Province). The prediction result of Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) shows that under the current level II response policy (blue line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Henan province would be controlled around August 16, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 150-180 people (between black and pink dot lines); and that under the level III response policy (red dot line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Henan province would be controlled around August 18, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 267 people. (August 4, 2021)
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[1] 即，当出现一例感染病例时，省指挥部立即组织指挥部成员和专家进行分析研判,对突发公共卫生事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由省人民政府决定启动Ⅱ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令，对中风险的地区,实施“外防输入、内防扩散”策略,尽快有序恢复正常生产生活秩序。
When the first case appears, the provincial headquarters should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and provincial people's government decided to initiate a level Ⅱ emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with moderate epidemic risk, the strategy of "Preventing imported cases and internal spread" should be implemented to orderly restore normal production and life as soon as possible.
[2] 即，当感染病例积累到一定数量时，地级以上市、省直管县(市、区)突发公共卫生事件应急指挥机构立即组织各单位成员和专家进行分析研判,对事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由地级以上市人民政府决定启动Ⅲ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令，对疫情风险较低的地区,实施“外防输入”策略,全面恢复正常生产生活秩序。
When the number of infected cases accumulates to a certain number, the municipal public health emergency response agency should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the municipal people's government will initiate a level III emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with low epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing imported cases" should be implemented to fully restore normal production and life.
