Prediction of COVID-19 Outbreak Since September 10 in Putian City, Fujian Province by Lanzhou University (September 13)
Since the local confirmed COVID-19 cases and asymptomatic COVID-19 infections were reported in Putian city on September 10, 2021, as of 24:00 on September 12, 2021, 35 local confirmed COVID-19 cases of the current outbreak have been reported in Putian city (data source: Putian Municipal Health Commission). According to the latest data, the preliminary prediction result of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) shows that under the current level II response policy (blue line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Putian city would be controlled around September 26, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 268 (214-322, between the two blue dot lines); and that under the level III response policy (red dot line) or if there are still undetected chains of infection, the current COVID-19 outbreak in Putian city would be controlled around October 4, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 529. The prediction result will be updated based on the latest progress of the outbreak. (September 13, 2021)
When the first case appears, the provincial headquarters should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and provincial people's government decided to initiate a level Ⅱ emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with moderate epidemic risk, the strategy of "Preventing imported cases and internal spread" should be implemented to orderly restore normal production and life as soon as possible.
When the number of infected cases accumulates to a certain number, the municipal public health emergency response agency should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the municipal people's government will initiate a level III emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with low epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing imported cases" should be implemented to fully restore normal production and life.