Prediction of COVID-19 Outbreak Since September 12 in Xiamen City, Fujian Province by Lanzhou University (September 17)
自9月12日厦门市报告新冠肺炎本土确诊病例和本土无症状感染者以来，截至9月16日24时，厦门市已累计报告确诊病例84例（本土，数据来源：厦门市卫健委）。根据最新的疫情数据，兰州大学《新冠肺炎疫情全球预测系统》的初步预测结果显示，在当前政府采取的及时、有效的二级管控措施[1]下（蓝色实线），厦门市本轮疫情预计将于9月27日左右得到控制，累计确诊病例数预计约198人（138-257，两条蓝色虚线之间）；若采取三级管控措施[2]（红色虚线），厦门市本轮疫情预计在10月4日左右得到控制，累计确诊病例数或将达到424人左右。预测结果由传染病模型预测得出，仅供参考，后续将根据疫情最新进展进行更新预测。(2021年9月17日）
Since the local confirmed COVID-19 cases and asymptomatic COVID-19 infections were reported in Xiamen city on September 12, 2021, as of 24:00 on September 16, 2021, 84 local confirmed COVID-19 cases of the current outbreak have been reported in Xiamen city (data source: Xiamen Municipal Health Commission). According to the latest data, the preliminary prediction result of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) shows that under the current level II response policy[1] (blue line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Xiamen city would be controlled around September 27, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 198 (138-257, between the two blue dot lines); and that under the level III response policy[2] (red dot line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Xiamen city would be controlled around October 4, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 424. The prediction result is obtained from the epidemic model and for reference only, which will be updated based on the latest progress of the outbreak. (September 17, 2021)
__________________________________________
[1] 即，当出现一例感染病例时，省指挥部立即组织指挥部成员和专家进行分析研判,对突发公共卫生事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由省人民政府决定启动Ⅱ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令，对中风险的地区,实施“外防输入、内防扩散”策略,尽快有序恢复正常生产生活秩序。
When the first case appears, the provincial headquarters should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the provincial people's government decided to initiate a level Ⅱ emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with moderate epidemic risk, the strategy of "Preventing imported cases and internal spread" should be implemented to orderly restore normal production and life as soon as possible.
[2] 即，当感染病例积累到一定数量时，地级以上市、省直管县(市、区)突发公共卫生事件应急指挥机构立即组织各单位成员和专家进行分析研判,对事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由地级以上市人民政府决定启动Ⅲ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令，对疫情风险较低的地区,实施“外防输入”策略,全面恢复正常生产生活秩序。
When the number of infected cases accumulates to a certain number, the municipal public health emergency response agency should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the municipal people's government will initiate a level III emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with low epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing imported cases" should be implemented to fully restore normal production and life.
