Prediction of COVID-19 Outbreak Since September 12 in Xiamen City, Fujian Province by Lanzhou University (September 17)
Since the local confirmed COVID-19 cases and asymptomatic COVID-19 infections were reported in Xiamen city on September 12, 2021, as of 24:00 on September 16, 2021, 84 local confirmed COVID-19 cases of the current outbreak have been reported in Xiamen city (data source: Xiamen Municipal Health Commission). According to the latest data, the preliminary prediction result of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) shows that under the current level II response policy (blue line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Xiamen city would be controlled around September 27, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 198 (138-257, between the two blue dot lines); and that under the level III response policy (red dot line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Xiamen city would be controlled around October 4, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 424. The prediction result is obtained from the epidemic model and for reference only, which will be updated based on the latest progress of the outbreak. (September 17, 2021)
When the first case appears, the provincial headquarters should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the provincial people's government decided to initiate a level Ⅱ emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with moderate epidemic risk, the strategy of "Preventing imported cases and internal spread" should be implemented to orderly restore normal production and life as soon as possible.
When the number of infected cases accumulates to a certain number, the municipal public health emergency response agency should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the municipal people's government will initiate a level III emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with low epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing imported cases" should be implemented to fully restore normal production and life.