National Prediction of COVID-19 Outbreaks First Reported by Domestic Travel Groups in 2021
自2021年10月16日全国报告新冠肺炎本土确诊病例和本土无症状感染者以来，截至10月27日24时，全国已累计报告确诊病例271例（本土，数据来源：国家卫健委）。根据最新的疫情数据，兰州大学《新冠肺炎疫情全球预测系统》的预测结果显示，在当前政府采取的及时、有效的二级管控措施[1]下（蓝色实线），全国本轮疫情预计将于11月09日左右得到控制，累计确诊病例数预计约592人（415-771，两条蓝色虚线之间）；若采取三级管控措施[2]（红色虚线），或者仍有未发现的传染链，全国本轮疫情预计在11月16日左右得到控制，累计确诊病例数或将达到2416人左右。后续将根据疫情最新进展进行更新预测。(2021年10月28日）
Since the local confirmed COVID-19 cases and asymptomatic COVID-19 infections were reported in China on October 16, 2021, as of 24:00 on October 27, 2021, 271 local confirmed COVID-19 cases of the current outbreak have been reported in China (data source: National Health Commission of the PRC). According to the latest data, the prediction result of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) shows that under the current level II response policy[1] (blue line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in China would be controlled around November 9, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 592 (415-771, between the two blue dot lines); and that under the level III response policy[2] (red dot line) or if there are still undetected chains of infection, the current COVID-19 outbreak in China would be controlled around November 16, 2021, with the cumulative confirmed cases of this outbreak of about 2416. The prediction result will be updated based on the latest progress of the outbreak. (October 28, 2021)
__________________________________________
[1] 即，当出现一例感染病例时，省指挥部立即组织指挥部成员和专家进行分析研判,对突发公共卫生事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由省人民政府决定启动Ⅱ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令，对中风险的地区,实施“外防输入、内防扩散”策略,尽快有序恢复正常生产生活秩序。
When the first case appears, the provincial headquarters should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and provincial people's government decided to initiate a level Ⅱ emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with moderate epidemic risk, the strategy of "Preventing imported cases and internal spread" should be implemented to orderly restore normal production and life as soon as possible.
[2] 即，当感染病例积累到一定数量时，地级以上市、省直管县(市、区)突发公共卫生事件应急指挥机构立即组织各单位成员和专家进行分析研判,对事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由地级以上市人民政府决定启动Ⅲ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令，对疫情风险较低的地区,实施“外防输入”策略,全面恢复正常生产生活秩序。
When the number of infected cases accumulates to a certain number, the municipal public health emergency response agency should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the municipal people's government will initiate a level III emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with low epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing imported cases" should be implemented to fully restore normal production and life.
