新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

全球每月预测概况

Overview of Global COVID-19 Prediction in November

The new cases worldwide would rise above a mind-numbing number because of the more rapid spread of the COVID-19 caused by the temperature dropping of the arrival of winter in the northern hemisphere. As of now, the number of cumulative confirmed cases has exceeded 43.74 million worldwide, with the death toll of about 1.16 million. As things stand now, Europe has undoubtedly become the epicenter of the current outbreak, with the number of daily new cases in several European countries hitting new records, and its severity has surpassed that of the first wave. Prediction results from the Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) indicate that an estimated 13 million people were infected worldwide in November. Ten countries, including the United States, Belgium, Czech Republic, France and the Netherlands, might continue to see a number of daily new cases remaining above 10,000.

The world’s top 10 countries for the projected number of new confirmed cases in November have been presented in Figure 1, indicating that the third wave of epidemics has already occurred in the United States, and it is getting worse; the new wave of epidemics in European countries such as the Czech Republic, France, the Netherlands, and Poland is tending to exacerbate, which is awfully daunting.

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Fig. 1 World's top 10 countries for the projected number of new confirmed cases in November

Specifically, the global epidemic exacerbates speedily in November. In the Americas, the number of daily new cases of the US would be on an uptrend, with an average of about 49,000 cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 1.46 million. Brazil would see a fluctuating downward of the daily growth, with an average of 18,000 new cases a day, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in November to more than 0.55 million. Argentina would see an uptrend on the daily new confirmed cases, with an average of about 17,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 0.52 million.

In Europe, the number of daily new cases in many countries is close to a vertical upward trend, and the number of new infections would set a new record. Especially in the Czech Republic, its average number of daily new cases would be about 35,000, with a maximum of about 60,000, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 1.40 million. The average number of daily new cases in Spain would be about 31,000, with a maximum of about 32,000, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 0.9 million. The average number of daily new cases in the Netherlands would be about 27,000, with a maximum of about 50,000, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 0.82 million. The average number of daily new cases in Poland would be about 27,000, with a maximum of about 45,000, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 0.8 million. The average number of daily new cases in Belgium would be about 23,000, with a maximum of about 33,000, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 0.68 million. The infections in France stays higher, its average number of daily new cases in Spain would be about 29,000, with a maximum of about 40,000, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 0.87 million. The country is expected to be one of the worst-hit regions in Europe.

Across Asia, India appears to be seeing a decline in daily new cases, but there is still a large number of susceptible populations. Iran would see an uptrend on the daily new confirmed cases, with an average of about 6,650 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 0.19 million. The number of daily new cases in Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries shows a fluctuating trend with a small amplitude.

In addition, Russia, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Switzerland and other countries would see an accelerated increase in the number of newly confirmed cases in November, which is not encouraging.

What described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly prediction section of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).