新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

全球每月预测概况

Overview of Global COVID-19 Prediction in December

At the present stage, the COVID-19 is still spreading. Many parts of the world continue to be hit by the fierce outbreak, with the number of daily new confirmed cases rising sharply for several days. So far, more than 64.44 million people have been infected with COVID-19 globally, and 1.49 million people have died. Prediction results from the Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) indicate that the number of daily new cases globally would rise significantly in December, with an estimated 21.08 million infections, which could account for about 25% of all confirmed cases in the world.

The world’s top 10 countries for the projected number of new confirmed cases in December have been presented in Figure 1, indicating that the US would confront the worst stage, and Spain, Germany, Russia and other countries set new records, which is not optimistic.

Fig. 1 World's top 10 countries for the projected new confirmed cases in December

Specifically, the number of new COVID-19 cases worldwide remained high in December. In the Americas, the number of daily new cases of the US would be on a sharp uptrend, with an average of about 0.28 million cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 8.8 million, which would account for about 39% of the total confirmed cases in this country. Brazil, the potential new epicenter, would see a fluctuating uptrend of the daily growth, with an average of more than 35,000 new cases a day, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in December to more than 1.08 million. Mexico would see an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of more than 12,000 new cases a day and the maximum of about 16,000, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in December to more than 0.37 million.

Europe is still under the pressure of the current pandemic, especially in Spain, it would see an average of daily new cases of about 45,000, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 1.38 million. The average number of daily new cases in Germany would be about 31,000, with a maximum of about 37,000, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 0.96 million. Russia would see an average of daily new cases of about 27,000 cases, with the maximum of about 31,000, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 0.84 million. Ukraine would see an average of daily new cases of about 21,000 cases, with the maximum of about 27,000, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 0.64 million. Serbia would see a sharp uptrend on the number of daily new cases, with an average of about 20,000 and the maximum of about 38,000, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 0.61 million.

In Asia, Iran would see an uptrend on the daily new cases, with an average of about 20,000 cases and the maximum of about 27,000, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 0.63 million. India would see an downtrend on the daily new cases, with an average of exceeding 13,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 0.41 million.

In December, France, Italy and Romania are likely to have more than 10,000 new confirmed cases per day; the UK, Portugal, Colombia, Argentina and Poland would have more than 1,000 new cases per day, which is not encouraging.

What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly prediction section of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).