新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

全球每月预测概况

Overview of Global COVID-19 Prediction in January, 2021

At present, the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 is still accelerating with the global new confirmed cases smashing one record after another. As of now, more than 82.03 million people have been infected with COVID-19, and 1.79 million people have died globally. Prediction results from the Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) indicate that the number of daily new cases globally would rise significantly in January, 2021, with an estimated 20.69 million infections, which could account for about 20% of all confirmed cases in the world.

The world’s top 10 countries for the projected number of new confirmed cases in January have been presented in Figure 1, indicating that the epidemic would continue to worsen in the US, where the number of new cases is staggering. Affected by the emergence of the mutated novel Coronavirus with higher contagiosity, the number of confirmed cases in the UK soared. Infected patients with the mutated novel Coronavirus have been found in many countries. In addition, the epidemic would continue to worsen in Russia, Brazil, Germany and Spain, and ‘reignite’ in South Africa, Japan and other countries. The mutation of the virus coupled with the onset of a cold snap has made the global epidemic situation very unstable.

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Fig. 1 World's top 10 countries for the projected new confirmed cases in January

Specifically, the number of new COVID-19 cases worldwide remained high in January. In the Americas, the US is on the verge of the worst situation, the number of daily new cases of the US would be on an uptrend, with an average of about 0.31 million and a maximum of more than 0.38 million cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 9.48 million, which would account for about 33% of the total confirmed cases in this country. Brazil would see a slow downtrend of the daily growth, with an average of more than 30,000 new cases a day, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in January to more than 0.92 million. Canada would see a rapid uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of more than 9,926 new cases a day and the maximum of about 12,000, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in January to more than 0.31 million.

The epidemic in Europe continues to exacerbate. The UK would see a sharp uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 37,000 and the maximum of about 48,000, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 1.16 million. Russia would see an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 34,000 and the maximum of about 37,000, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 1.04 million. Germany would experience a fluctuating trend of the daily growth, with an average of more than 26,000 new cases a day and the maximum of about 32,000, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in January to more than 0.79 million. The daily new cases in Spain would be on a slow downtrend but with an average of more than 17,000, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 0.53 million. Sweden would see a rapid uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of more than 11,000 new cases a day and the maximum of about 12,000, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in January to more than 0.34 million.

In Asia, Iran would face a fluctuating trend on the daily new cases, with an average of about 10,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 0.32 million. Although with a decline in the daily new cases, India also would have an average of about 6849 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 0.21 million. Japan, who has effectively controlled the epidemic at the early stage, would see an uptrend in the daily new cases, with an average of about 5346 cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 0.17 million.

In Africa, South Africa’s outbreak accelerates, the average of daily new cases would exceed 14,000 with the maximum of about 17,000, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 0.45 million.

In addition, Serbia, Mexico, Indonesia, Italy, the Netherlands, Colombia, Denmark, Argentina, Ukraine and other countries would have an average of more than 1,000 new confirmed cases per day in January, which is not optimistic.

What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly prediction section of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).