The cumulative number of people infected with COVID-19 worldwide has exceeded 100 million, and more than 2.17 million have died. But sadly, the virus is still mutating and the epidemic is still getting worse. Prediction results from the Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) indicate that the number of daily new cases in February would continue to rise globally, with an estimated 17.95 million infections, which is likely to account for about 15% of the total confirmed worldwide.
The world’s top 10 countries for the projected number of new confirmed cases in February have been presented in Figure 1, indicating that the US remains the country with the largest number of new confirmed cases. The number of confirmed cases has soared in Brazil and Britain because of different variants of the virus. The epidemic in Russia, Colombia, Mexico, Portugal, Indonesia, Sweden and Germany has once again intensified. The world's fight against the epidemic has entered a complex and difficult stage.
Specifically, the global new crown epidemic would continue to spread in February. In the Americas, the pandemic in the US would continue to wreak havoc, the number of daily new cases of the US would be an average of about 0.278 million, with a maximum of more than 0.32 million cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in February exceeding 7.78 million, which could account for about 23% of the total confirmed cases in this country. Brazil would see an uptrend of the daily new cases and a maximum of more than 56,000 people, with an average of about 51,000 people, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in February to more than 1.43 million. Colombia would see an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of more than 19,000 people and a maximum of about 21,000 people, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in February to more than 0.522 million. Mexico would also see an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of more than 15,000 people and a maximum exceeding 17,000 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in February to more than 0.436 million.
The epidemic in Europe would spread more rapidly. The daily new cases in the UK would set to soar, with an average of about 43,000 people and the maximum of about 52,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in February exceeding 1.2 million. The UK would see an oscillatory fluctuation trend of the daily new cases, with an average more than 20,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in February exceeding 0.57 million. Portugal would experience an uptrend of the daily growth, with an average of more than 15,000 new cases a day and the maximum of about 24,000 infections, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in February to more than 0.43 million. The daily new cases in Sweden would be on a rapid uptrend, with an average of more than 13,000 people and a maximum of about 15,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in February exceeding 0.374 million. The daily new cases in Germany would be on a slow downtrend, with an average of more than 10,000, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in February exceeding 0.287 million.
In Asia, Indonesia would face an uptrend on the daily new cases, with an average of about 14,000 cases and a maximum of about 17,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in February exceeding 0.4 million. Although with a decline in the daily new cases, India also would have an average of about 8729 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in February exceeding 0.24 million. Japan would have an average of daily new cases about 5517 cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in February exceeding 0.154 million.
In Africa, South Africa would experience a slow uptrend, its average of daily new cases would exceed 7,957, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in February exceeding 0.223 million.
In addition, Spain, Argentina, Lebanon, Italy, France, Malaysia, Switzerland and Canada would have an average of more than 1,000 new confirmed cases per day in February, which is not optimistic.
What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly prediction section of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
January 29, 2021
