Due to the rapid emergence and spread of variants of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide, many countries hit by the COVID-19 pandemic have seen a rebound. As of April 27, more than 127 million confirmed cases worldwide have been reported, with 2.79 million people died. According to the prediction results of the Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic system (GPCP), SARS-CoV-2 would accelerate its spread in April, there would be an estimated 16.2562 million infections, likely accounting for 11.3% of the total cumulative confirmed cases around the world.
The world’s top 10 countries for the projected number of new confirmed cases in April have been presented in Figure 1, indicating that countries in Europe and America are severely affected by the pandemic, new cases in Brazil and India would continue to soar, France would see a dramatically worsened situation and become the third most hit country in the world, the number of new confirmed cases in the US is on a downward trend, but it remains to be seen whether the epidemic has truly reached a turning point. The number of daily new cases in Germany, Spain, Ukraine, the Philippines, Poland, Colombia and other countries remains high, posing new challenges to global epidemic prevention and control.
Fig. 1 World's top 10 countries for the projected new confirmed cases in April
In April, the global epidemic situation would still be grim. Specifically, in America, the number of daily new cases of Brazil would see an uptrend, its average would be about 80,000, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in April exceeding 2.39 million. The US would see a slow downtrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 49,000 people, though, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in April to more than 1.48 million. The daily new cases in Colombia would be on an uptrend with an average of about 8,931, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in April to more than 0.268 million. Italy might see an oscillatory trend of the daily new cases, with an average of around 7,977.7 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in April to more than 0.239 million.
In Europe, the number of cumulative confirmed cases in April in France would exceed 1.64 million, with an average of daily new cases of about 55,000 people and a maximum of daily new cases of about 80,000. Germany would see an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 26,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in April exceeding 0.78 million. Spain would experience an uptrend of daily growth, with an average of more than 24,000, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in April to more than 0.71 million. The daily new cases in Ukraine would be on an uptrend, with an average of about 20,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in April exceeding 0.595 million. The average of daily new cases in Poland would be about 13,000, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in April to more than 0.38 million.
In Asia, India would face a rapid uptrend on the daily new cases, with an average of about 57,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in April exceeding 1.71 million. The Philippines also would see an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 15,000 cases and a maximum of about 20,000, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in April exceeding 0.445 million. Iraq would have a rapid uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 6235.7 cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in April exceeding 0.187 million.
In addition, Greece, Argentina, Mexico, Czechia, Canada, Serbia, Switzerland, and Chile, etc. would all have an average of daily new cases more than 1,000 in April, which is not optimistic.
What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly prediction section of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
March 31, 2021
