As more people are vaccinated and appropriate preventive measures are implemented, the number of COVID-19 new cases in many countries is now on a downward trend. As of May 28, more than 168 million people have been infected with COVID-19 globally and 3.5 million have died. According to the prediction results of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP), the outbreak would ease up in many parts of the world in June, with an estimated 16.59 million new cases.
The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in June have been presented in Figure 1, indicating that India would still be the most affected country and the situation is not optimistic. The outbreak in Brazil and Turkey might remain severe. The new confirmed cases in the US would still be on a slow downtrend but its daily new cases would surpass 10 thousand. The COVID-19 is still spreading in Argentina, Iran, France, Colombia, Germany, the Philippines and other countries, and the global situation has become more complicated.
Fig. 1 The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in June
Specifically, in the Americas, the number of daily new cases of Brazil would continue to present a slow uptrend, its average would be more than 75,000, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in June exceeding 2.25 million. The US would see a slow downtrend of the daily new cases, but the average of daily new cases would exceed 26,000 people, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in June to more than 0.8 million. The daily new cases in Argentina would be on an uptrend with an average of about 25,000, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in June to more than 0.77 million. Colombia might see a slow uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of around 13,000 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in June to more than 0.38 million.
In Europe, France would see a downtrend of the daily new cases, with an average of around 14,000 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in June to more than 0.432 million. Germany would see a slow rise of daily new cases, with an average exceeding 11,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in June to more than 0.33 million.
In Asia, the daily new cases in India in June would decline first and then rise, with an average exceeding 0.17 million, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in June exceeding 5.14 million. Turkey would also see a slow uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 31,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in June exceeding 0.948 million. Iran would have an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 17,000 cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in June to exceed 0.517 million. The daily new cases in the Philippines would be on an uptrend with an average of about 8,480, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in June to more than 0.254 million.
In addition, Chile, Malaysia, Nepal, Peru, Spain, Italy, Iraq, Jordan, Russia, etc. would all have an average of daily new cases surpassing 1,000 in June, which is not optimistic.
What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly and seasonal prediction sections of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
May 28, 2021
