With the rapid spread of the variant strain Delta of SARS-CoV-2, some countries have shown a small rebound trend, and the global pandemic may face the risk of a third outbreak. As of June 25, more than 180 million people have been infected with COVID-19 and 3.9 million have died worldwide. According to the prediction results of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP), the outbreak would gradually slow down in many parts of the world in July, with an estimated 21.67 million new cases.
The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in July have been presented in Figure 1. It is shown that Brazil would overtake India on the top of the list, and its epidemic situation is not going well. The epidemic in Brazil and Turkey might remain severe. While the number of daily new confirmed cases in the US is still slowly declining, it would still have more than 10,000 infections per day. The COVID-19 is still raging in Argentina, France, Colombia, Chile and other countries. The global situation of the COVID-19 would become more complicated.
Fig. 1 The world’ s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in July
Specifically, in the Americas, the number of daily new cases of Brazil would continue to present a slow uptrend, its average would be more than 72,000, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in July exceeding 2.23 million. The US would see a slow downtrend of the daily new cases in July and the predicted infections would be down from June. The average of daily new cases in the US would exceed 15,000, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in July to more than 0.5 million. The daily new cases in Argentina would be on an uptrend with an average of about 27,000, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in July to more than 0.86 million. Colombia might see a slow uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of around 32,000 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in July to more than 1 million.
In Europe, France would see a small fluctuation of the daily new cases in July and an increasing trend compared with June, with an average of around 22,000 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in July to more than 0.687 million. Russia would see a rise of daily new cases, with an average exceeding 24,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in July to more than 0.75 million.
In Asia, under the impact of the variant strain Delta, the daily new cases in India in July would experience an uptrend, with an average exceeding 48,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in July exceeding 1.5 million. Turkey would also see a slow uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 44,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in July exceeding 1.36 million. Indonesia would have an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 19,000 cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in July exceeding 0.59 million.
In addition, countries such as the Philippines, Poland, Peru, Italy, Iraq and Mexico would all have an average of daily new cases surpassing 1,000 in July, which is not optimistic.
What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly and seasonal prediction sections of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
June 25, 2021
