With the rapid spread of the variant strain Delta of SARS-CoV-2, some countries have shown a small rebound trend, and the global pandemic may face the risk of a third outbreak. As of August 4, more than 199 million people have been infected with COVID-19 and 4.2 million have died worldwide. According to the prediction results of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP), in August, the outbreak is expected to rebound in many parts of the world, with more than 22 million cases estimated.
The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in August have been presented in Figure 1. It is shown that the US would return to the first, and its epidemic situation is not going well. The epidemic in Thailand and Morocco might become severe and be the worst-hit countries for the first time. The COVID-19 is still raging in India, Brazil, the UK and France, where the average number of daily new cases would remain more than 20,000. COVID-19 is still spreading in Malaysia, Russia and other countries. The global situation has also become more complicated.
Fig. 1 The world’ s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in August
Specifically, in the Americas, the number of daily new cases of the US would continue to present an uptrend, with the average of daily new cases more than 0.19 million, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in August to exceed 5.96 million. Brazil would see a slow downtrend of the daily new cases in August, but its average of daily new cases would still be more than 50,000, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in August to exceed 1.55 million.
In Europe, the daily new cases in the UK in August would be on an uptrend, with an average exceeding 26,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in August exceeding 0.83 million. France would see an uptrend of the daily new cases in August, with an average of around 26,000 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in August to more than 0.78 million. Russia would see a downtrend of daily new cases, with an average exceeding 18,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in August to more than 0.56 million.
In Asia, the daily new cases in India in August would drop first then rise again, with an average exceeding 0.11 million people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in August exceeding 3.5 million. Iran would also see an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 26,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in August exceeding 0.8 million. Thailand would have an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 25,000 cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in August to exceed 0.75 million. Malaysia would also have an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 21,000 cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in August to exceed 0.64 million. There has been a significant increase in the number of confirmed cases in Asia, affected by the Delta variant.
In Africa, Morocco would also see an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 26,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in August exceeding 0.78 million. In addition, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, etc. would see an average of daily new cases of more than 10,000 in August, which is not optimistic.
What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly and seasonal prediction sections of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
August 4, 2021
