With the rapid spread of the variant strain Delta of SARS-CoV-2, some countries have shown a small rebound trend, and the global pandemic may face the risk of a third outbreak. As of September 4, more than 220 million people have been infected with COVID-19 and 4.5 million have died worldwide. According to the prediction results of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP), in September, the outbreak resurgence would appear in many parts of the world, with more than 37 million cases estimated.
The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in September have been presented in Figure 1. It is shown that the US would remain the first. The outbreak in many European countries is likely to worsen in September. The COVID-19 is still raging in India, Thailand, Brazil and the UK, where the average number of daily new cases would remain more than 30,000. COVID-19 is still spreading in Iran, Spain and other countries. The global situation has also become more complicated.
Fig. 1 The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in September
Specifically, in the Americas, the number of daily new cases of the US would continue to present an uptrend, with the average of daily new cases more than 0.2 million, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in September to exceed 8.9 million. Brazil would see a downtrend of the daily new cases in September, but its average of daily new cases would still be more than 40,000, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in September to exceed 1.24 million.
In Europe, the daily new cases in the UK in September would be on an uptrend, with an average exceeding 38,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in September exceeding 1.15 million. Spain would see an uptrend of the daily new cases in September, with an average of around 65,000 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in September to more than 1.96 million. Switzerland would see a downtrend of daily new cases, with an average exceeding 39,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in September to more than 1.19 million. The daily new cases in Belgium in September would be on a downtrend, with an average exceeding 36,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in September exceeding 1.1 million. Serbia would have an uptrend of daily new cases, with an average exceeding 30,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in September to more than 0.93 million.
In Asia, the daily new cases in India in September would rise again, with an average exceeding 0.13 million people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in September exceeding 4.1 million. Iran would also see a downtrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 33,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in September exceeding 0.99 million. Thailand would have a downtrend of the daily new cases, but its average would be more than 0.11 million cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in August to exceed 3.3 million.
In addition, Greece, Malaysia, the Philippines and other countries are expected to see more than 10,000 new confirmed cases per day on average in September. The epidemic situation is far from optimistic.
What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly and seasonal prediction sections of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
September 5, 2021
