With the rapid spread of the variant strain Delta of SARS-CoV-2, some countries have shown a small rebound trend, and the global pandemic may face the risk of a third outbreak. As of September 30, more than 230 million people have been infected with COVID-19 and 4.7 million have died worldwide. According to the prediction results of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP), in October, the outbreak resurgence would appear in many parts of the world, with more than 24 million new cases estimated.
The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in October have been presented in Figure 1. It is shown that the US would still remain the first. The outbreak in many European countries is likely to worsen in October. The COVID-19 is still raging in India, Brazil and Turkey, where the average number of daily new cases would remain more than 10,000. COVID-19 is still spreading in the Philippines and other countries. The global situation has also become more complicated.
Fig. 1 The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in October
Specifically, in the Americas, the number of daily new cases of the US would continue to present an uptrend, with the average of daily new cases more than 0.25 million, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in October to exceed 8 million. Brazil would see a downtrend of the daily new cases in October, but its average of daily new cases would still be more than 15,000, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in October to exceed 0.48 million.
In Europe, the daily new cases in the UK in October would have a downtrend, with an average exceeding 40,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in October exceeding 1.3 million, up from September. Germany would also see a downtrend of the daily new cases in October, with an average of around 23,000 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in October to more than 0.71 million. Russia would see a downtrend of daily new cases, with its average exceeding 15,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in October to more than 0.48 million. The daily new cases in France in October would be on a downtrend, with an average exceeding 15,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in October exceeding 0.48 million. Serbia would have a slow uptrend of daily new cases, with an average exceeding 13,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in October to more than 0.4 million, down from September.
In Asia, the daily new cases in India in October would show a decreasing trend, with an average exceeding 14,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in October exceeding 0.44 million. The Philippines would see an uptrend of the daily new cases, with an average of about 22,000 cases, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in October exceeding 0.69 million. Turkey would have a downtrend of the daily new cases, but its average would be more than 25,000 cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in October to exceed 0.77 million.
In addition, Greece, Malaysia and other countries are expected to see more than 10,000 daily new confirmed cases on average in October. The epidemic situation is far from optimistic.
What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly and seasonal prediction sections of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
September 30, 2021
