COVID-19 is still spreading globally, with many countries showing a downward trend compared to previous months. As of November 3, more than 240 million people have been infected with COVID-19 and 5 million have died worldwide. According to the prediction results of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP), in November, new cases would decline in many places around the world, with more than 14 million new cases estimated.
The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in November have been presented in Figure 1. It is shown that the US would still remain the first. Many European countries would still suffer in November. The COVID-19 is still raging in India, Brazil and Turkey, where the average number of daily new cases would remain more than 10,000. Europe is likely to be the continent hardest hit by the outbreak in November.
Fig. 1 The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in November
Specifically, in the Americas, the number of daily new cases of the US would continue to present an uptrend, with the average of daily new cases more than 73,000, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November to exceed 2.2 million. Brazil would see a downtrend of the daily new cases in November, but its average of daily new cases would still be more than 10,000, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November to exceed 0.31 million.
In Europe, the daily new cases in the UK in November would have a downtrend, with an average exceeding 60,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 1.9 million, up from October. Russia would see an uptrend of the daily new cases in November, with an average of around 38,000 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in November to more than 1.14 million. Ukraine would also see an uptrend of daily new cases, with its average exceeding 25,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in November to more than 0.75 million. The daily new cases in Germany in November would be on a downtrend, with an average exceeding 13,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 0.39 million. Romania would have an uptrend of daily new cases, with an average exceeding 11,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in November to more than 0.35 million. The daily new cases in France in November would be on a downtrend, with an average exceeding 10,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 0.32 million.
In Asia, the daily new cases in Turkey in November would increase first then decline, with an average exceeding 30,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November exceeding 0.9 million, up from October. India would have a downtrend of the daily new cases, but its average would be more than 17,000 cases, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in November to exceed 0.53 million.
In addition, Netherlands, Italy, Thailand and other countries are expected to see more than 10,000 daily new confirmed cases on average in November. The epidemic situation is far from optimistic.
What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly and seasonal prediction sections of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
November 3, 2021
