COVID-19 is still spreading on a large scale, with many countries showing an upward trend compared to last month. As of December 1, more than 260 million people have been infected with COVID-19 and 5.2 million have died worldwide. According to the prediction results of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP), in December, a COVID-19 resurgence would occur in many places around the world, with more than 21.3 million new cases estimated.
The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in December have been presented in Figure 1. It is shown that the US would still remain the first. Most of the top 10 countries would be in Europe, indicating many European countries would still suffer in December and become the epicenter of the whole world. Europe would remain the continent hardest hit by the outbreak in December.
Fig. 1 The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in December
Specifically, in the Americas, the number of daily new cases of the US would continue to present an uptrend, with the average of daily new cases more than 0.13 million, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December to exceed 4 million.
In Europe, the daily new cases in Germany in December would have an uptrend, with an average exceeding 81,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 2.5 million. France would see an uptrend of the daily new cases in December, with an average of around 50,000 people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in December to more than 1.5 million. The UK would see a downtrend of daily new cases, with its average exceeding 46,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in December to more than 1.4 million, down from November. The daily new cases in Russia in December would also be on a downtrend, with an average exceeding 32,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 1.01 million. Czechia would have a slight uptrend of daily new cases, with an average exceeding 28,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in December to more than 0.88 million. The daily new cases in Poland in December would be on an uptrend, with an average exceeding 26,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 0.81 million. The Netherlands would have an uptrend of daily new cases, with an average exceeding 23,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in December to more than 0.71 million. The daily new cases in Belgium in December would be on a downtrend, with an average exceeding 22,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 0.71 million.
In Asia, the daily new cases in Turkey in December would show a downtrend, with an average exceeding 29,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in December exceeding 0.9 million, little changed from November.
In addition, Ukraine, Austria, Italy, Vietnam and other countries are expected to see more than 10,000 daily new confirmed cases on average in December. The epidemic situation is far from optimistic. Meanwhile, the emergence of Omicron, a new variant of SARS-CoV-2, has made the situation more serious, we need to be vigilant.
What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly and seasonal prediction sections of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
December 3, 2021
