In short five months, COVID-19 cases worldwide soared from 200 million to 300 million due to the highly contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2. Based on the current epidemic situation, the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (hereinafter referred to as the "GPCP") has provided monthly and seasonal prediction results for the global epidemic.
According to the prediction results of GPCP (Figure 1), in January 2022, a COVID-19 resurgence would occur in many places around the world, with more than 51 million new cases estimated. Among the top 10 countries with the most projected new cases in January, the US would continue to have the highest number of confirmed cases, while most of the top 10 countries would be in Europe, indicating many European countries would still suffer in January. In January 2022, the average of daily new cases of the US would exceed 0.53 million, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January to exceed 16 million. With more than 7 million confirmed cases already recorded, Spain would have an average of daily new cases of about 0.22 million and more than 6.9 million cumulative cases in January 2022. This month is likely to be the worst phase of the epidemic in Spain. Daily new cases of France and Italy in January would rise first and then decline, with the average of daily new cases of more than 0.13 million and 0.1 million respectively, recording about 4 million and 3.3 million cumulative cases respectively in January. Daily new cases in the UK in January would be on a downtrend, with its average about 97,000 people, bringing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 3 million.
Fig. 1 The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in January
Due to the rapid global spread of the Omicron variant, outbreaks in many countries showed a trend of fast growth after December 2021. Most of the hardest-hit countries are in the Northern Hemisphere, where it is winter. The projections (Figure 2) show a significant increase in the number of new cases worldwide from the beginning of January to the end of June 2022 compared to the same period last year. Although the number of new cases in many countries would rise first and then fall, the situation remains grim. If the current epidemic continues, the US is likely to be the hardest-hit country, with nearly 100 million people infected in the next six months. France, Spain, Italy, the UK and Germany would have more than 46 million, 30 million, 16.6 million, 16.2 million and 8.2 million cases respectively in the next six months. In Asia, the number of new cases in India and Turkey would also increase rapidly, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in the next six months exceeding 18 million and 10 million respectively. Although it is summer in the Southern Hemisphere, the high infectivity of the Omicron variant has led to a significant increase in COVID-19 cases in several countries, the worst affected would be Argentina and Australia, where would have more than 14 million and 12 million infections respectively in the next six months.
Fig. 2 The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases from January to June 2022
The above prediction results are based on the current global epidemic situation, which is affected by complex factors. Therefore, we will upgrade the prediction accuracy according to the development of the epidemic.
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
January 9, 2022
