新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

德国

Germany

德国(Germany)

德国总人口约8293万人,自2020年5月30日起参加抗议活动人数累计可达16万人左右。假设德国于7月初完全解封,二次暴发将在7月底达到峰值,每日新增确诊病例约为8千例,叠加抗议活动影响后每日新增确诊病例将增长至约1.4万例。随着管控措施的再次实施,二次暴发将于今年年底逐步减弱平息,累计确诊病例总数将达到70万例左右。


Germany has a population of 82.93 million and the number of protesters has reached about 160,000 since May 30, 2020. Assuming that Germany completely lifts lockdown in early July, the second outbreak would peak in the end of July, with daily new confirmed cases of about 8,000. After adding influence factor of protest to prediction model, the number of daily new confirmed cases will reach about 14,000. Due to re-implementation of control measures, the second outbreak will gradually subside by the end of 2020, but the number of cumulative confirmed cases will reach about 700,000.