新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

墨西哥

Mexico

墨西哥 (Mexico)

墨西哥总人口约1.23亿人,自2020年5月30日起参加抗议活动人数累计可达5万人左右。假设墨西哥于7月初完全解封,二次暴发将在8月底达到峰值,每日新增确诊病例约为5800例,叠加抗议活动影响后每日新增确诊病例将增长至约7600例。随着管控措施的再次实施,二次暴发将于2021年4月逐步减弱平息,累计确诊病例总数达到170万例左右。


Mexico has a population of about 123 million and the number of protesters has reached about 50,000 since May 30, 2020. Assuming that Mexico completely lifts lockdown in early July, the second outbreak would peak in the end of August, with daily new confirmed cases of about 5,800. After adding influence factor of protest to prediction model, the number of daily new confirmed cases will reach about 7,600. Due to re-implementation of control measures, the second outbreak will gradually subside by April 2021, and the number of cumulative confirmed cases will reach about 1.7 million.