新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

底特律

Detroit 

底特律 (Detroit)

底特律总人口约175万人,自2020年5月29日起参加抗议活动人数累计可达3万人左右。假设底特律于6月底完全解封,二次暴发将在9月初达到峰值,每日新增确诊病例约为1000例,叠加抗议活动影响后每日新增确诊病例将增长至约2200例。随着管控措施的再次实施,二次暴发将于10月逐步减弱平息,累计确诊病例总数达到7万例左右。


Detroit has a population of 1.75 million and the number of protesters has reached about 30,000 since May 29, 2020. Assuming that Detroit completely lifts lockdown in the end of June, the second outbreak would peak in early September, with daily new confirmed cases of about 1,000. After adding influence factor of protest to prediction model, the number of daily new confirmed cases will reach about 2,200. Due to re-implementation of control measures, the second outbreak will gradually subside by October 2020, but the number of cumulative confirmed cases will reach about 70,000.