新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

费城

Philadelphia

费城(Philadelphia)

费城总人口约1004万人,自2020年5月30日起参加抗议活动人数累计可达1万人左右。假设费城于6月底完全解封,二次暴发将在10月初达到峰值,每日新增确诊病例约为800例,叠加抗议活动影响后每日新增确诊病例将增长至约1700例。随着管控措施的再次实施,二次暴发将于今年年底逐步减弱平息,累计确诊病例总数达到12万例左右。


Philadelphia has a population of 10.04 million and the number of protesters has reached about 10,000 since May 30, 2020. Assuming that Philadelphiacompletely lifts lockdown in the end of June, the second outbreak would peak in early October, with daily new confirmed cases of about 800. After adding influence factor of protest to prediction model, the number of daily new confirmed cases will reach about 1,700. Due to re-implementation of control measures, the second outbreak will gradually subside by the end of 2020, but the number of cumulative confirmed cases will reach about 120,000.