新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

旧金山

San Francisco

旧金山 (San Francisco)

旧金山总人口约88万人,自2020年5月30日起参加抗议活动人数累计可达3万人左右。假设旧金山于6月底完全解封,二次暴发将在8月中旬达到峰值,每日新增确诊病例约为100例,叠加抗议活动影响后每日新增确诊病例将增长至约400例。随着管控措施的再次实施,二次暴发将于10月逐步减弱平息,累计确诊病例总数达到2.2万例左右。


San Francisco has a population of 881,549 and the number of protesters has reached about 30,000 since May 30, 2020. Assuming that San Francisco completely lifts lockdown in the end of June, the second outbreak would peak in middle August, with daily new confirmed cases of about 100. After adding influence factor of protest to prediction model, the number of daily new confirmed cases will reach about 400. Due to re-implementation of control measures, the second outbreak will gradually subside by October 2020, but the number of cumulative confirmed cases will reach about 22,000.