新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

洛杉矶

Los Angeles

洛杉矶 (Los Angeles)

 

洛杉矶总人口约398万人,自2020年5月28日起参加抗议活动人数累计可达1万人左右。假设洛杉矶于7月初完全解封,二次暴发将在8月中旬达到峰值,每日新增确诊病例约为4000例,叠加抗议活动影响后每日新增确诊病例将增长至约5300例。随着管控措施的再次实施,二次暴发将于今年年底逐步减弱平息,累计确诊病例总数达到75万例左右。


Los Angeles has a population of 3.98 million and the number of protesters has reached about 10,000 since May 28, 2020. Assuming that Los Angeles completely lifts lockdown in early July, the second outbreak would peak in middle August, with daily new confirmed cases of about 4000. After adding influence factor of protest to prediction model, the number of daily new confirmed cases will reach about 5,300. Due to re-implementation of control measures, the second outbreak will gradually subside by the end of 2020, but the number of cumulative confirmed cases will reach about 750,000.