新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

西雅图

Seattle

西雅图 (Seattle)

西雅图总人口约225万人,自2020年5月29日起参加抗议活动人数累计可达5万人左右。假设西雅图于6月底完全解封,二次暴发将在8月中旬达到峰值,每日新增确诊病例约为200例,叠加抗议活动影响后每日新增确诊病例将增长至约600例。随着管控措施的再次实施,二次暴发将于9月逐步减弱平息,累计确诊病例总数达到3.5万例左右。


Seattle has a population of 2.25 million and the number of protesters has reached about 50,000 since May 29, 2020. Assuming that Seattle completely lifts lockdown in the end of June, the second outbreak would peak in middle August, with daily new confirmed cases of about 200. After adding influence factor of protest to prediction model, the number of daily new confirmed cases will reach about 600. Due to re-implementation of control measures, the second outbreak will gradually subside by September 2020, but the number of cumulative confirmed cases will reach about 35,000.