Prediction of COVID-19 outbreak since July 20 in Jiangsu Province by Lanzhou University (August 7)
As of 24:00 on August 6, 2021, 516 local confirmed COVID-19 cases of the current outbreak have been reported in Jiangsu province (data source: Health Commission of Jiangsu Province). According to the situation of two epidemic centers in Jiangsu province, the original model was improved. By combining the previous prediction with the updated prediction, the results show that under the current level II response policy (blue line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Jiangsu province would be controlled around August 20, 2021, with the cumulative infected people of this outbreak of about 485-692; and that under the level III response policy (red dot line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Jiangsu province would be controlled around August 25, 2021, with the cumulative infected people of this outbreak of about 1095. (August 7, 2021)
When the first case appears, the provincial headquarters should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and provincial people's government decided to initiate a level Ⅱ emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with moderate epidemic risk, the strategy of "Preventing imported cases and internal spread" should be implemented to orderly restore normal production and life as soon as possible.
When the number of infected cases accumulates to a certain number, the municipal public health emergency response agency should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the municipal people's government will initiate a level III emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with low epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing imported cases" should be implemented to fully restore normal production and life.