Prediction of COVID-19 outbreak since July 20 in Jiangsu Province by Lanzhou University (August 7)
截至2021年8月6日24时，江苏省本轮疫情已累计报告本土确诊病例516例（数据来源：江苏省卫健委）。根据江苏省内疫情双中心的情况，对原有模型进行了改进。结合前期预测与更新预测结果表明，在当前二级响应措施[1]下，江苏省本轮疫情预计将于8月20日左右得到控制，累计感染人数预计约485-692人；若采取三级响应措施[2]，本轮疫情预计在8月25日左右得到控制，累计感染人数或将达到1095人左右。(2021年8月7日）
As of 24:00 on August 6, 2021, 516 local confirmed COVID-19 cases of the current outbreak have been reported in Jiangsu province (data source: Health Commission of Jiangsu Province). According to the situation of two epidemic centers in Jiangsu province, the original model was improved. By combining the previous prediction with the updated prediction, the results show that under the current level II response policy (blue line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Jiangsu province would be controlled around August 20, 2021, with the cumulative infected people of this outbreak of about 485-692; and that under the level III response policy (red dot line), the current COVID-19 outbreak in Jiangsu province would be controlled around August 25, 2021, with the cumulative infected people of this outbreak of about 1095. (August 7, 2021)
__________________________________________
[1] 即，当出现一例感染病例时，省指挥部立即组织指挥部成员和专家进行分析研判,对突发公共卫生事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由省人民政府决定启动Ⅱ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令，对中风险的地区,实施“外防输入、内防扩散”策略,尽快有序恢复正常生产生活秩序。
When the first case appears, the provincial headquarters should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and provincial people's government decided to initiate a level Ⅱ emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with moderate epidemic risk, the strategy of "Preventing imported cases and internal spread" should be implemented to orderly restore normal production and life as soon as possible.
[2] 即，当感染病例积累到一定数量时，地级以上市、省直管县(市、区)突发公共卫生事件应急指挥机构立即组织各单位成员和专家进行分析研判,对事件影响及其发展趋势进行综合评估,由地级以上市人民政府决定启动Ⅲ级应急响应,并向各有关单位发布启动相关应急程序的命令，对疫情风险较低的地区,实施“外防输入”策略,全面恢复正常生产生活秩序。
When the number of infected cases accumulates to a certain number, the municipal public health emergency response agency should immediately organize members and experts to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the incident and its development trend, and the municipal people's government will initiate a level III emergency response and issue orders to all relevant departments to start emergency procedures. In areas with low epidemic risk, the strategy of "preventing imported cases" should be implemented to fully restore normal production and life.
__________________________________________
相关内容： 兰州大学对7·20江苏省突发新冠肺炎疫情的前期预测
