关注疫情预测结果的社会各界人士：
大家好！非常感谢大家的热切关注和耐心等候！在此，我们就本轮疫情发生十余天后才发布预测结果向大家致以诚挚的歉意！兰州大学《新冠肺炎疫情全球预测系统》 自2020年5月25日上线以来，对国内突发疫情进行了十六次预测，受到了社会各界的广泛关注和支持，但是我们仍在为了提高预测精度，定期提升和完善预测系统。国内本轮旅行团疫情发生时，正值系统完善升级时期，此次疫情所涉及的旅游路线复杂、波及省份多、德尔塔病毒传播分支多，也给疫情预测带来了新的挑战和压力。兰州大学西部生态安全协同创新中心疫情预测组在积极配合兰州市疫情防控政策要求的同时，紧急研判本轮疫情的传播链和发展形势，升级系统与预测疫情两手抓，对此次涉及的6个省份、7个市及国内整体疫情进行了全面预测；基于对本轮疫情的传播链和发展态势的分析，结合我们的前期研究，提出了相关防疫建议，衷心希望对国家及各省的疫情防控有所帮助。再次感谢大家对我们团队疫情预测工作的关注和支持！
兰州大学西部生态安全协同创新中心疫情预测组
2021年10月28日
To whom it may concern,
We really appreciate your attention and patience! Please accept our sincerest apology for the delay in releasing prediction results after more than 10 days of the current COVID-19 outbreak. Since its launch on May 25, 2020, the Global Prediction System for COVID-19 Pandemic of Lanzhou University has conducted 16 predictions of accidental outbreaks in China, which has received wide attention and support from the society. However, we are still regularly upgrading and improving the prediction system in order to improve the prediction accuracy. When the current COVID-19 outbreak occurred, the system was being improved and upgraded. The complicated travel routes, various affected provinces and multiple branches of the spread of Delta variant have brought new challenges and pressures to the epidemic prediction. While actively cooperating with Lanzhou's epidemic prevention and control policies, we urgently analyzed the transmission chain and development situation of this round of epidemic. As we upgraded our systems, we made epidemic predictions for 6 provinces and 7 cities involved in the current epidemic and the whole country. Based on the analysis of the transmission chain and development trend of this round of epidemic, combined with our preliminary researches, we put forward relevant epidemic prevention suggestions, hoping to be helpful to the domestic prevention and control of the epidemic.
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
October 28, 2021
2021旅行团疫情预测概况
关于旅行团疫情防控的建议
1.旅行社应加强旅游团组的管理。实时跟踪监测旅游团队情况，加强游客信息报备，及时通报有关部门及街道、社区、村委会等。
2.导游是本轮疫情传播的关键点，应做好自身的闭环，带队途中减少不必要的人员接触。
3.旅游团应安排游客分时用餐，避开用餐高峰期，做到错峰不聚集。
4.有跨省旅游史的人群应及时核酸检测及适当的居家隔离。
